Sunday, 23 December 2012

Sunday NFL Preview: Week 16




Two things of note happened in the Monday Night Football Saturday Edition in Detroit. One: The Atlanta Falcons clinched the #1 seed in the NFC by going 13-2 in a 31-18 win. That they go into the playoffs as probably the most underrated #1 seed in memory is irrelevant at this point. Two: Calvin Johnson, in a season where the Detroit Lions sit 4-11, set the all-time NFL single-season receiving record, surpassing Jerry Rice's 1995 mark with a game still to play. But while both of these things are particularly impressive, neither was particularly surprising. Atlanta have been quietly winning games all season (and indeed I actually predicted a 13 point victory on Thursday), while Megatron has pretty much been Detroit's only receiving threat. The main focus on Sunday will be how the playoff picture shakes out. And whether, unlike Saturday night, there can be any shocks.

Looking first at the NFC, there are so many permutations that it could hurt your head. The biggest game this weekend is the NFC West showdown between Seattle and San Francisco. With their record of 10-3-1, the 49ers have sealed a playoff berth, but with the Seahawks sitting on 9-5 and breathing right down their necks, the division is still up for grabs. The game is the final primetime NFL game of the regular season, and promises to be an absolute stunner. San Francisco seal the division with a win, Seattle all but seal a playoff berth with a win. It's going to be a battle of 2 young quarterbacks and two seasoned star running backs in the Pacific Northwest and whoever wins is in great shape for the postseason.

Depending on the result in Seattle, the NFC playoff picture could be either muddy or very muddy. The highest stakes appear to be in the NFC East, where three teams sit on 8-6, could all win the division, and the team finishing second could grab a wildcard spot. Today, Dallas entertain New Orleans, Washington visit the fourth team in the division, the dead in the water Eagles, and the Giants are at Baltimore later on. New Orleans are desperate to make something of a disappointing season and reach 8-8, and that leaves them the most vulnerable to a loss today in my eyes. The Cowboys are 4-3 at home this year though, while the Saints are 2-5 on the road. It's a tough game to call, and despite being pretty much dead in the water themselves, the Saints will enjoy being able to influence the playoffs this late on.

The Washington Redskins should have Robert Griffin III back under centre in Philadelphia, and know that they can count on backup Kirk Cousins too after his showing last week. The Eagles have been desperate all season, and I can't see them beating a Redskins team charging for the playoffs even at home.

The Giants visiting Baltimore is a strange one. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been hot and cold all year, and their 34-0 shutout loss to Atlanta a week ago will be playing on their minds. The Ravens actually have a better record than the Giants and sit top of the AFC North, with a playoff berth already confirmed. Their loss at home to Denver last week has ruined their chances of a first round bye, but they will be desperate to claim the division before they visit Cincinnati next week. A loss for the Giants would seriously dent their playoff hopes, so expect a very tight game.

Speaking of Cincinnati, they are involved in a playoff race all of their own. The Bengals sit on an 8-6 record as they visit division rivals Pittsburgh this afternoon. The Steelers have a 7-7 record at the moment, and crucially won the first meeting between the two earlier in the season. A further win today would even up the records, and the Steelers would be ahead on head-to-head record. The Bengals haven’t beaten Pittsburgh in the last 9 attempts, and with so much on the line in a road game today, can they pull one out of the bag?

Over in the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers have already won the division as they welcome the Tennessee Titans in what should be a formality. Elsewhere in the division though, the Bears and the Vikings are still alive in the playoff race. Adrian Peterson has almost single handedly driven Minnesota to an 8-6 record, and they currently sit in the #6 position in the NFC. They do, however have to visit Houston, who despite already having won their division, still actually have quite a lot to play for. Lose both of their remaining games, and they could be kissing good bye to not just the #1 seed in the AFC, but also their first week bye, by virtue of their loss to New England. Will the Texans go all guns blazing against the Vikings and risk Jared Allen and Peterson tearing them up? Or will they play a more conservative game and hope that their return visit to Indianapolis next week will be the better place to tie up the conference. I fully expect the Texans to go for it, but with Peterson in the Vikings backfield, anything could happen.

The Chicago Bears have at times looked exceptional this season, then Jay Cutler remembers who he is and has an absolute nightmare the next week. They are behind the Vikings on head-to-head in division, but can still make the playoffs if they win out and the Vikes (and some combination of Washington, the Giants and Dallas) lose at least once. Despite the long trip to Phoenix, the Bears should have too much for the hapless Cardinals. Although look what happened to Detroit last week.

Elsewhere, the Colts visit Kansas City and should expect a win, Miami visit Buffalo, the Jets with Greg McElroy at QB welcome the equally bad San Diego, Tampa Bay host a St Louis side with the most outside chance of reaching the playoffs, Carolina host the inept Raiders, Tom Brady and the Patriots should have some fun in Jacksonville, and the Broncos can strengthen their credentials at home to Cleveland.


Sunday early afternoon predictions
New Orleans over Dallas by 6
Washington over Philadelphia by 17
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati by 8
Green Bay over Tennessee by 17
Houston over Minnesota by 3
Indianapolis over Kansas City by 24
Miami over Buffalo by 6
NY Jets over San Diego in overtime
St Louis over Tampa Bay by 7
Carolina over Oakland by 13
New England over Jacksonville by 20

Sunday late afternoon predictions
Baltimore over NY Giants in overtime
Chicago over Arizona by 10
Denver over Cleveland by 14

Sunday night prediction
Seattle over San Francisco by 2

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