I'm going to start this by being completely honest. I hate the Atlanta Falcons in a way only a New Orleans Saints fan can. To put it in context for all of you not as accustomed to the NFL, I hate the Falcons in the same way I hate Celtic as a lifelong Rangers fan. And how as a Chelsea fan I hate Leeds (and well, everyone). But in the NFL, it's the Falcons I look to lose every week. But it's not happened this year and for that they need to be admired. Or do they?
The Falcons are 12-2 going into tonight's trip to Detroit, where a win can secure the NFC's #1 seed, and both of their losses have come on the road to divisional rivals looking to prove something. They lost to a Saints team who have struggled all season, and for whom the scalp of Atlanta would be the highlight of the year and were doubly focused on beating their rivals. And they lost to a Carolina side, whose second year, first overall draft pick quarterback was struggling and had to prove his worth in light of the rookies showing him up. Cam delivered, and the Falcons were handed their second loss. Losing in division, especially on the road, doesn't make you a bad side, so why were the Falcons never topping the lists of the top teams in the NFL, even when starting the season 8-0? Why have the Falcons been top of the "Power Rankings" for just a week or 2 all year?
Because they haven't beaten anyone. Or so many commentators would have you believe. And that theory does - sort of - hold up. They disposed of Kansas City in week 1. They've since beaten San Diego, Oakland, Arizona, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. As well as winning the home games against New Orleans and Carolina. That means 8 of their 12 wins have come against teams with a losing record. And their strength of schedule is amongst the lowest in the league at .488. But wait. Look at who has the weakest strength of schedule this year. It's only the Patriots. And believe it or not, the 49ers, Packers and Texans also have a weaker strength of schedule than Atlanta. All 4 teams have been hyped at one point or another as the bets in the NFL.
And the other 4 wins. Week 2 against the Broncos. The 11-3 Broncos. Yet leading up to week 15, many claimed that the Falcons "Haven't beaten anyone". Peyton Manning hadn't started to get it together in Denver by week 2 according to those "in the know" and that win wasn't as impressive in week 2 as it would have been in week 11 or 12. Nonsense. They disposed of the Redskins in week 5. The RG3 led Redskins who are overwhelming favourites for the NFC East and bound for the playoffs. But of course, they were rubbish in Week 5 (they were 2-2). They beat Dallas in week 9. The Cowboys are challenging for the NFC East too, but they were 3-5 back in week 9, so of course, that wasn't an impressive win either.
It took until last Sunday, their 34-0 routing of the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants for anyone to stand up and notice the Falcons. The whole NFC East - being seen as the most exciting division in football right now - has been dispatched by this team, but it's taken until now to be noticed. Is it to do with their personnel? Matt Ryan isn't a big name stud quarterback, and while Michael Turner and Julio Jones get the job done (and often in style) at running back and wide receiver, neither are big household names.
Don't get me wrong, I'd be devastated if the Falcons even made, never mind won, a Super Bowl in New Orleans, but the level that they've been counted out is surprising, and quite possibly very dangerous. I doubt very much potential playoff opponents have written them off in the same way the media have, but media opinion carries a lot of weight. As it is, I feel that Atlanta will beat Detroit at Ford Field tonight and take the NFC #1 seed. In fact, even if they don't, I can't see them also losing to Tampa Bay next week (unless Green Bay and San Francisco both lose as well this week and they play a weakened team - but they'd already have it wrapped up in that scenario anyway).
I don't understand why Atlanta have been so under hyped so far this season, and for all I know, they enjoy flying under the radar, it may even help them. But I do know that they can't be counted out, and as much as it pains me to say, they have to be seen as a real Super Bowl contender.
Saturday Night Prediction
Atlanta over Detroit by 13
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