NFL: Week 17 Preview: Cowboys at Redskins is a worthy season closer

It's in prime time for a reason. Washington host Dallas in a win and in game in Landover on Sunday night with absolutely everything on the line. Win the game, win the NFC East and tie up the #4 seed in the NFC and a home playoff game with (almost certainly) Seattle. Lose, and for Dallas that's it, and for Washington, only a real run of results going in their favour would suffice. It's the last game of the regular season and it really is everything to play for. Washington's rookie sensation against Dallas' erratic shooter at quarterback. Robert Griffin III has had a sensational rookie season since being drafted second overall out of Baylor. Tony Romo tends to fall apart in December under pressure, but can have incredible games at the drop of a hat. It's a game that could go either way, but with Washington having home advantage; it could be very difficult for the Cowboys to be seeing postseason action.

In the other NFC East game, the Giants can make the playoffs if Dallas, Minnesota and Chicago all lose. Their recent slump, however, is going to be hard to break out of, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see the Giants actually losing at home to Philly. It's been that sort of season.

It's in the NFC North where the other playoff side will come from barring an unlikely series of results. Minnesota host Green Bay knowing that quite simply, a win and they have the #6 seed. The sticking point is that Green Bay are playing for the #2 seed and the all important first round bye. If the packers beat the Vikings, they will have the #2 seed, and the Vikings season will rest on whether Detroit can beat Chicago. In an interesting piece of scheduling, the Bears will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern in Detroit, while it's a 4.25 Eastern kick off in Minneapolis. This could work in two ways for the Vikings. If Chicago have won, they will know that a win is necessary. If Chicago have lost, they may look at Washington being favourites at 8.20. Either way, green Bay are going to be extremely difficult to beat, even at home, but with Adrian Peterson rushing 210 yards at Lambeau earlier in the season, they know they have an ace in the hole - and who knows, maybe their rivals in Detroit will have something to say.

NFC playoff scenarios:
Washington in if: Washington win or tie or Washington lose and Minnesota and Chicago lose.
Dallas in if: Dallas win.
Minnesota in if: Minnesota win or Minnesota lose and Dallas, NY Giants and Chicago lose.
Chicago in if: Chicago win and Minnesota lose.
NY Giants in if: NY Giants win and Dallas, Minnesota and Chicago lose.

Most of the rest of the NFC is in dead rubber mode, but there is still some interest in the NFC West. San Francisco can claim a first round bye with a win over the Cardinals and a Green Bay loss, while Seattle could steal the division and the #3 seed with a win at home to the Rams and a 49ers loss. With the #1 seed already sewn up, expect the falcons to send out the backups in their NFC South tie with Tampa Bay. New Orleans will try to get to 8-8 in the Superdome against Carolina in the other NFC encounter.

In the AFC, it's all about the first round byes. I fully expect Denver to destroy Kansas City and wrap up a bye, and New England should breeze past a Dolphins side, who although in a slight resurgence, aren't of the Patriots' class. So that leaves Houston. Beaten at home by the Vikings last week has left them in danger of losing the #1 seed. They play a Colts side who are already playoff bound, and already locked into the #5 position. With no chance of improving their seeding, Indianapolis may rest starters, and that could well pave the way for the Texans to wrap up the #1 seed.

Elsewhere expect the Jets to crumble once again in Buffalo. Greg McElroy has a concussion (which the Jets coaches found out about - in true Jets style - when McElroy arrived at practice with a towel wrapped round his head, accompanied by a trainer), and Rex Ryan has inexplicably named Mark Sanchez as the starter, bypassing Tim Tebow again and seemingly confirming that he was a front office signing and not a Rex signing. They may be a trainwreck, but they really are interesting to read about! The Ravens to exert their authority over the Bengals, Tennessee and Jacksonville play a game that will be watched by no-one, Pittsburgh to end their season on a high note over the Browns and San Diego and Oakland play out another game that no-one cares about. Life in the AFC isn't that interesting when the playoff teams are settled with a week to go!


Sunday Early Afternoon Predictions
New Orleans over Carolina by 16
Atlanta over Tampa Bay by 3
Buffalo over NY Jets by 7
Baltimore over Cincinnati by 12
Detroit over Chicago by 6
Tennessee over Jacksonville by 10
Houston over Indianapolis by 3
Philadelphia over NY Giants by 6
Pittsburgh over Cleveland by 16

Sunday Late Afternoon Predictions
San Diego over Oakland by 10
San Francisco over Arizona by 28
Seattle over St Louis by 21
Green Bay over Minnesota in overtime
New England over Miami by 7
Denver over Kansas City by 35

Sunday Night Prediction
Washington over Dallas by 6

Playoff Predictions

AFC
Byes: #1 Houston, #2 Denver
#6 Cincinnati at #3 New England
#5 Indianapolis at #4 Baltimore

NFC
Byes: #1 Atlanta, #2 Green Bay
#6 Minnesota at #3 San Francisco
#5 Seattle at #4 Washington

Monday NFL Musings: Seattle Rising

Forget the result of the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks are the team to fear in the NFC playoffs. Just two years after making the playoffs with a pretty abysmal 7-9 record, Pete Carroll has crafted a team who can genuinely be feared on both sides.

Their defence has been resolute. They rank 5th overall in pass defence, and 11th overall in run defence. They've registered 36 sacks on opposing quarterbacks, 17 interceptions (including 2 pick sixes) and forced 20 fumbles (with one returned for a touchdown). Their offence has been led by an unheralded third round rookie by the name of Russell Wilson. The 75th overall pick out of Wisconsin (who had previously played college baseball at NC State) was seen by many as undersized and unlikely to make an impact on the NFL. His numbers, 2,868 yards passing with 25 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, and 431 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing come close to those of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, the first and second overall picks, and Wilson has to be in with a shout of winning the Rookie of the Year Award. Marshawn Lynch has ably assisted with close to 1500 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns (as well as 180 receiving yards with two further touchdowns), but it's been an incredible rookie year from Wilson.

The Seahawks downfall may be that they will more than likely only have a wildcard spot, and won't be at home in the playoffs. Seattle are a perfect 7-0 at home, but faltered on the road with a 3-5 record. They need an unlikely Arizona win in San Francisco next week to win the division, but if they can take their home form on the road in the playoffs, Seattle could be an unlikely shout for the Super Bowl.

Houston shut down Adrian Peterson and restricted him to just 86 yards as his quest for the NFL rushing record faltered. They failed to shut down Christian Ponder though, and the Vikings now have their destiny in their own hands. Win at home against a Green bay side who have already tied up their own playoff berth and Minnesota will make their first return to the playoffs since their overtime loss to the Saints in the 2009 NFC Championship when Brett Favre ran the show. The Vikings defence brutalised Arian Foster, restricting him to 15 yards on ten carried, and held the Texans to just 34 rushing yards in total. The Texans were held to just 187 overall yards and failed to score a touchdown for the first time in over six years. They can still clinch the #1 seed in the AFC with a win next week, but this trouncing will be much more worrying than their previous losses this year. Going back to Minnesota, they will be in buoyant mode in the Metrodome next week. Green Bay need a win to clinch a first round bye, but can the chance to make the playoffs in front of a home crowd, and the possibility of Peterson breaking the rushing record, anything could happen. It promises to be a great game.

The NFC East picture is a little more settled than it was before the weekend. Dallas' visit to Washington next week is in primetime for a reason. It's a straight shootout for the division title. Dallas' home loss to the Saints doesn't change the fact that they must win at FedEx Field to win the division. A win or tie is good enough for the Redskins to win the division and claim the #4 seed. Their win at Philadelphia was more laboured than they would have liked, but at 9-6, they hold the cards in the division. The Giants capitulation in Baltimore means that they will only clinch a playoff spot if Dallas, Minnesota and Chicago all lose next week, and they themselves topple the Eagles. All eyes will be on what is set to be a thrilling regular season closer in Landover next Sunday night.

The Chicago Bears are still in the playoff hunt, and they know that a win over the Lions, coupled with Green Bay beating Minnesota will put them in the playoffs. It's out of their hands, but fingers will be crossed at Soldier Field.

Over in the AFC, it's almost all tied up. The Colts and Bengals tied up the wildcard berths and Baltimore claimed the last remaining division in the North. All that's left to play for is home field advantage and the first round byes. Houston will clinch the #1 seed with a win over Indianapolis, with Denver waiting in the wings to steal it if they should lose. Denver need to win or hope the Patriots lose to get the first round bye. The Pats can still clinch the #1 seed if they win and the Texans and Broncos both lose. Other than those three, it's a lot of dead rubbers in the AFC this coming week.

I'll preview Week 17 on Friday. Have a great Christmas.

Sunday NFL Preview: Week 16

Two things of note happened in the Monday Night Football Saturday Edition in Detroit. One: The Atlanta Falcons clinched the #1 seed in the NFC by going 13-2 in a 31-18 win. That they go into the playoffs as probably the most underrated #1 seed in memory is irrelevant at this point. Two: Calvin Johnson, in a season where the Detroit Lions sit 4-11, set the all-time NFL single-season receiving record, surpassing Jerry Rice's 1995 mark with a game still to play. But while both of these things are particularly impressive, neither was particularly surprising. Atlanta have been quietly winning games all season (and indeed I actually predicted a 13 point victory on Thursday), while Megatron has pretty much been Detroit's only receiving threat. The main focus on Sunday will be how the playoff picture shakes out. And whether, unlike Saturday night, there can be any shocks.

Looking first at the NFC, there are so many permutations that it could hurt your head. The biggest game this weekend is the NFC West showdown between Seattle and San Francisco. With their record of 10-3-1, the 49ers have sealed a playoff berth, but with the Seahawks sitting on 9-5 and breathing right down their necks, the division is still up for grabs. The game is the final primetime NFL game of the regular season, and promises to be an absolute stunner. San Francisco seal the division with a win, Seattle all but seal a playoff berth with a win. It's going to be a battle of 2 young quarterbacks and two seasoned star running backs in the Pacific Northwest and whoever wins is in great shape for the postseason.

Depending on the result in Seattle, the NFC playoff picture could be either muddy or very muddy. The highest stakes appear to be in the NFC East, where three teams sit on 8-6, could all win the division, and the team finishing second could grab a wildcard spot. Today, Dallas entertain New Orleans, Washington visit the fourth team in the division, the dead in the water Eagles, and the Giants are at Baltimore later on. New Orleans are desperate to make something of a disappointing season and reach 8-8, and that leaves them the most vulnerable to a loss today in my eyes. The Cowboys are 4-3 at home this year though, while the Saints are 2-5 on the road. It's a tough game to call, and despite being pretty much dead in the water themselves, the Saints will enjoy being able to influence the playoffs this late on.

The Washington Redskins should have Robert Griffin III back under centre in Philadelphia, and know that they can count on backup Kirk Cousins too after his showing last week. The Eagles have been desperate all season, and I can't see them beating a Redskins team charging for the playoffs even at home.

The Giants visiting Baltimore is a strange one. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been hot and cold all year, and their 34-0 shutout loss to Atlanta a week ago will be playing on their minds. The Ravens actually have a better record than the Giants and sit top of the AFC North, with a playoff berth already confirmed. Their loss at home to Denver last week has ruined their chances of a first round bye, but they will be desperate to claim the division before they visit Cincinnati next week. A loss for the Giants would seriously dent their playoff hopes, so expect a very tight game.

Speaking of Cincinnati, they are involved in a playoff race all of their own. The Bengals sit on an 8-6 record as they visit division rivals Pittsburgh this afternoon. The Steelers have a 7-7 record at the moment, and crucially won the first meeting between the two earlier in the season. A further win today would even up the records, and the Steelers would be ahead on head-to-head record. The Bengals haven’t beaten Pittsburgh in the last 9 attempts, and with so much on the line in a road game today, can they pull one out of the bag?

Over in the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers have already won the division as they welcome the Tennessee Titans in what should be a formality. Elsewhere in the division though, the Bears and the Vikings are still alive in the playoff race. Adrian Peterson has almost single handedly driven Minnesota to an 8-6 record, and they currently sit in the #6 position in the NFC. They do, however have to visit Houston, who despite already having won their division, still actually have quite a lot to play for. Lose both of their remaining games, and they could be kissing good bye to not just the #1 seed in the AFC, but also their first week bye, by virtue of their loss to New England. Will the Texans go all guns blazing against the Vikings and risk Jared Allen and Peterson tearing them up? Or will they play a more conservative game and hope that their return visit to Indianapolis next week will be the better place to tie up the conference. I fully expect the Texans to go for it, but with Peterson in the Vikings backfield, anything could happen.

The Chicago Bears have at times looked exceptional this season, then Jay Cutler remembers who he is and has an absolute nightmare the next week. They are behind the Vikings on head-to-head in division, but can still make the playoffs if they win out and the Vikes (and some combination of Washington, the Giants and Dallas) lose at least once. Despite the long trip to Phoenix, the Bears should have too much for the hapless Cardinals. Although look what happened to Detroit last week.

Elsewhere, the Colts visit Kansas City and should expect a win, Miami visit Buffalo, the Jets with Greg McElroy at QB welcome the equally bad San Diego, Tampa Bay host a St Louis side with the most outside chance of reaching the playoffs, Carolina host the inept Raiders, Tom Brady and the Patriots should have some fun in Jacksonville, and the Broncos can strengthen their credentials at home to Cleveland.

Sunday early afternoon predictions

New Orleans over Dallas by 6

Washington over Philadelphia by 17

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati by 8

Green Bay over Tennessee by 17

Houston over Minnesota by 3

Indianapolis over Kansas City by 24

Miami over Buffalo by 6

NY Jets over San Diego in overtime

St Louis over Tampa Bay by 7

Carolina over Oakland by 13

New England over Jacksonville by 20

Sunday late afternoon predictions

Baltimore over NY Giants in overtime

Chicago over Arizona by 10

Denver over Cleveland by 14

Sunday night prediction

Seattle over San Francisco by 2

NFL: Don't underestimate the Falcons

I'm going to start this by being completely honest. I hate the Atlanta Falcons in a way only a New Orleans Saints fan can. To put it in context for all of you not as accustomed to the NFL, I hate the Falcons in the same way I hate Celtic as a lifelong Rangers fan. And how as a Chelsea fan I hate Leeds (and well, everyone). But in the NFL, it's the Falcons I look to lose every week. But it's not happened this year and for that they need to be admired. Or do they?

The Falcons are 12-2 going into tonight's trip to Detroit, where a win can secure the NFC's #1 seed, and both of their losses have come on the road to divisional rivals looking to prove something. They lost to a Saints team who have struggled all season, and for whom the scalp of Atlanta would be the highlight of the year and were doubly focused on beating their rivals. And they lost to a Carolina side, whose second year, first overall draft pick quarterback was struggling and had to prove his worth in light of the rookies showing him up. Cam delivered, and the Falcons were handed their second loss. Losing in division, especially on the road, doesn't make you a bad side, so why were the Falcons never topping the lists of the top teams in the NFL, even when starting the season 8-0? Why have the Falcons been top of the "Power Rankings" for just a week or 2 all year?

Because they haven't beaten anyone. Or so many commentators would have you believe. And that theory does - sort of - hold up. They disposed of Kansas City in week 1. They've since beaten San Diego, Oakland, Arizona, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. As well as winning the home games against New Orleans and Carolina. That means 8 of their 12 wins have come against teams with a losing record. And their strength of schedule is amongst the lowest in the league at .488. But wait. Look at who has the weakest strength of schedule this year. It's only the Patriots. And believe it or not, the 49ers, Packers and Texans also have a weaker strength of schedule than Atlanta. All 4 teams have been hyped at one point or another as the bets in the NFL.

And the other 4 wins. Week 2 against the Broncos. The 11-3 Broncos. Yet leading up to week 15, many claimed that the Falcons "Haven't beaten anyone". Peyton Manning hadn't started to get it together in Denver by week 2 according to those "in the know" and that win wasn't as impressive in week 2 as it would have been in week 11 or 12. Nonsense. They disposed of the Redskins in week 5. The RG3 led Redskins who are overwhelming favourites for the NFC East and bound for the playoffs. But of course, they were rubbish in Week 5 (they were 2-2). They beat Dallas in week 9. The Cowboys are challenging for the NFC East too, but they were 3-5 back in week 9, so of course, that wasn't an impressive win either.

It took until last Sunday, their 34-0 routing of the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants for anyone to stand up and notice the Falcons. The whole NFC East - being seen as the most exciting division in football right now - has been dispatched by this team, but it's taken until now to be noticed. Is it to do with their personnel? Matt Ryan isn't a big name stud quarterback, and while Michael Turner and Julio Jones get the job done (and often in style) at running back and wide receiver, neither are big household names.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be devastated if the Falcons even made, never mind won, a Super Bowl in New Orleans, but the level that they've been counted out is surprising, and quite possibly very dangerous. I doubt very much potential playoff opponents have written them off in the same way the media have, but media opinion carries a lot of weight. As it is, I feel that Atlanta will beat Detroit at Ford Field tonight and take the NFC #1 seed. In fact, even if they don't, I can't see them also losing to Tampa Bay next week (unless Green Bay and San Francisco both lose as well this week and they play a weakened team - but they'd already have it wrapped up in that scenario anyway).

I don't understand why Atlanta have been so under hyped so far this season, and for all I know, they enjoy flying under the radar, it may even help them. But I do know that they can't be counted out, and as much as it pains me to say, they have to be seen as a real Super Bowl contender.

Saturday Night Prediction
Atlanta over Detroit by 13

NFL: Sanchez not the answer in East Rutherford

Sometimes it really just goes the way you expected all along.

Despite me saying yesterday that I actually expected the Jets to win, that was down to the fact that they were playing a Tennessee Titans side who have been nothing short of dreadful all season. I had forgotten to take into account that Mark Sanchez would be under centre.

Seemingly lost in a haze, Sanchez threw four interceptions, two of them in a calamitous fourth quarter, and then somehow managed to fumble a snap on the Titans 25 yard line with less than a minute to go - when a touchdown would have taken the game to overtime. Five turnovers, three in the final 15 minutes. The jets are now 6-8 and officially out of the playoff hunt.

While Sanchez's $8.5 million guarantee will almost certainly keep him at the Meadowlands for another year (although I'd get shot of him anyway, either try and negotiate a trade, or just flat out cut him) with the Jets' season now in garbage time, it's surely time for Rex Ryan to bench him and go with one of his other two quarterbacks for the final two games. The problem there is that one of them is the polarizing Tim Tebow, and the other is the untested Greg McElroy.

Tebow managed to take an ailing Denver team to the playoffs last year, with a stirring series of fourth quarter comebacks. Look at what Peyton Manning has done with largely the same Denver offence this year however, and made many think that anyone other than Kyle Orton could have lifted that side. There's always been questions about Tebow's arm, and how he'll cope when defences get wise to his running. Although looking at Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton this season, maybe a young, athletic quarterback with a running threat is becoming the new normal?

Greg McElroy was seen as the Jets saviour in week 13 when he came in for the dismal Sanchez, and threw a touchdown pass that sealed a victory. But McElroy really wasn't *that* good that afternoon. He threw just 7 times, completing 5 for 29 yards and rushed for just 5 yards on 4 carries. Against the Arizona Cardinals, who went on to give up over 50 points the very next week. The former Alabama man definitely has potential, but is he the answer?

If I were Rex Ryan, and as we all know, I am certainly not; I would start with Tebow for week 16 and 17. The jets traded for him for a reason, and although he divides opinion, the guy is wildly popular, and has a track record of winning games. At 25 years old it's no longer a case of not being ready, and with the season already a write off, Ryan has nothing to lose by throwing him in.

Rex has to look to next season. There is no standout quarterback in the 2013 draft - although you only have to look at Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner and this year Russell Wilson, to see that being a big first round pick isn't the be all and end all. But with a very limited pool of veterans who will be available in the close season, and an even smaller pool better than what he has - Rex may well have to look within. Sanchez is not the answer, so start Tebow and give McElroy some snaps through the last two weeks. In game evaluation is by far the best way...

Monday NFL Musings

It's too little too late for the Saints, but a 41-0 win over a division rival put a big smile on my face last night. Drew Brees has had probably the two worst games of his career the past 2 weeks, but turned on the style in the Superdome throwing 4 touchdowns to 4 different receivers with no interceptions. The defence turned on the style too and not only had their best game of the season, but their best game in 17 seasons, with a first shut out since 1995, and a first in the Superdome since 1991. It looks as if it's come too late for the playoffs this season, but an 8-8 season is still a possibility, and it leaves us all wondering what could have been if Jon Vilma and Will Smith's suspensions had been turned over before Week 1.

Outside of Tampa, it was a great week for the NFC South, as Atlanta bounced back from their shock loss to Carolina last week with a shutout of the reigning Super Bowl champions the New York Giants. The rout pushed the Giants out of the playoff spots and means the Falcons can tie up the NFC's #1 seed in Detroit on Thursday night. Now I dislike the Falcons more than any other team in football, but what a season they've had, and a win like that has shown them as a genuine Super Bowl contender. It was another great win for Carolina too, as Cam Newton led a 31-7 destruction of the Chargers in San Diego. The Panthers could win 7 games this year (they sit 5-9 right now), and if Cam can find any sort of consistency next year, they could be a big dark horse.

Is there any other way to describe Adrian Peterson than incredible? The Vikings running back has already ensured his personal best season for rushing yards, and is just 293 yards short of the all time rushing record with 2 games to go. The Vikings sit 8-6 after their win in St Louis, and are in the 6th spot in the NFC playoff race. Peterson has to be a front runner for MVP, because without him, it's hard to see the Vikes having won more than 3 or 4. A visit to Houston and Green bay in Minneapolis see out the Vikings season, 2 wins will definitely see them in the playoffs.

And while those two games may look like two of the hardest in the league, they are both against division winners. The Packers locked up the NFC North again with a comfortable, yet laboured win over an ailing Bears who have now lost two on the trot and find themselves out of the playoffs as things stand. Meanwhile, the Texans knocked off a flat Indianapolis to win the AFC South once again, but need at least 1 more win to secure a first round bye. 

Seattle scored 50 points for the second week in a row, and actually ran a fake punt while 30 points up in the 4th quarter. I actually like that Pete Carroll is a bit of a dick when it comes to running plays, because I don't get this American notion of not running up the score. If you're superior, show your superiority. What are you meant to do, just stop playing? Speaking of running plays, Russell Wilson rushed for 3 touchdowns, passed for one more, and just looked excellent. The Seahawks are looking like a playoff team just now, their showdown with the 49ers at CenturyLink next Sunday is going to be explosive. The 49ers themselves won a thriller in Foxboro, confirming their own playoff spot and denting the Pats' hopes of claiming a bye.

Kirk Cousins showed exactly why the Redskins drafted two quarterbacks this year as he lifted Washington to an impressive win in Cleveland while a beaming RG3 looked on. The Giants capitulation means that Washington now have the NFC East lead, with the division title still up for grabs by 3 teams. The third of whom being Dallas, who won a thriller in overtime at home to the Steelers, whose own playoff hopes now lie in the balance.

Elsewhere, Oakland scored 5 field goals while shutting out Kansas City in an absolute stinker of a game; the Cardinals routed a shocking Detroit; Peyton manning and the Broncos demolished a flagging Baltimore; and Miami crushed the Jags in a battle of the Florida AFC teams. The Jets take on Tennessee tonight in a less than mouthwatering Monday Night Football clash. Both teams are pretty awful, but I'm actually predicting a Jets victory, which will take them to a rather improbable 7-7. It's a funny old game.