All four home teams won last week, which meant that New Orleans, Houston, New York Giants and amazingly Denver progressed to the Divisional Round. The tow games couldn't be more different today, with one expected to be very close, and the otehr with a predicted blowout. Here's what's happening.
NFC Divisional Round
#3 New Orleans (14-3) at #2 San Francisco (13-3)
The Saints showed exactly what they're made of last weekend as they put up 45 points for the third game running in an obliteration of a very good Detroit Lions side. Drew Brees threw for another 466 yards after smashing the regular season passing record, while the defence did their part by intercepting Matthew Stafford twice. The 49ers defence has been pretty hard to break down all season, so it remains to be seen if the running back trifecta of Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and the superlative Darren Sproles can break through that D-line. If not, their receivers have the advantage of being thrown to by Brees, with Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, along with the aforementioned Sproles being his favoured targets - though Brees and Sean Payton's spread offence can cause major confusion.
It's their stuffy defence that has lifted San Francisco to the season that they've had. Coach Jim Harbaugh has had an incredible debut season, but he must do something big to beat the Saints. Quarterback Alex Smith has thrown just 17 touchdowns (compared to Brees' 46) and 2,000 yards less passing yards than his counterpart. Running back Frank Gore is going to have to have a monster game, but the Saints' rush defence has been pretty solid. The 49ers have a very difficult task ahead of themselves, but home advantage may help them out. The spread is set at 3.5 in favour of New Orleans, and that won't be far off the mark. It will be the Saints who move on to the Conference Championship in a close, entertaining game.
Prediction: New Orleans 34 San Francisco 30
AFC Divisional Round
#4 Denver (9-8) at #1 New England (13-3)
It was an absolute thriller at Mile High last Sunday, as Denver booked their place in the Divisional Round with the first play of overtime against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tim Tebow may have only completed 10 passes, but two of them for for touchdowns. He also rushed for a touchdown, and led the number 1 ranked rushing offence in the league to a surprising and momentous win. I still have my doubts about Tebow as a true NFL quarterback, and tonight will have a big bearing on his career.
Tom Brady and the Patriots came from a long way behind to beat the Broncos four weeks ago when they met in the regular season, and Brady has had another fantastic season, 2nd only to Drew Brees in passing yards. The fact that the team have managed to win 13 games with the worst defence I've ever seen under Bill Belichick (31st in pass yards and total yards allowed) says alot about Brady and his two main targets, Wes Welker, and record breaking tight end Rob Gronkowski. The spread is set at 13.5 in favour of the Patriots, which on the surface looks fair. But if Tim Tebow can prove himself and take advantage of the Pats' poor defence, things might just get shaken up a bit.
Prediction: Denver 27 New England 28
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