After the Saints (disappointingly) crashed out in a thriller at the 49ers and Denver were blown out by the Patriots, the final two Divisional Round games take place this evening. The Patriots await to find out their visitors, and the 49ers will find out whether they will host the Giants, or travel to Lambeau.
AFC Divisional Round
Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)
Home advantage has been paramount in this year's playoffs, with all six home teams having come out on top so far. The Ravens are undefeated at M&T Bank Stadium this season, while three of the Texans six losses have come on the road. TJ Yates has done well since coming in for the injured Matt Schaub, but it was their rushing game, namely Arian Foster, that saw off the Bengals last weekend. Foster has 153 yards and 2 touchdowns then, but it remains to be seen whether he can do that against the Ravens' 2nd ranked rushing defence.
And it is the Ravens defence that has been instrumental in seeing them to this stage.They are third in the league in total yards allowed, and also third in points given up. Inside linebacker Ray Lewis remains one of the scariest defensive players in the NFL even at 36 years old, and he will have Foster right in his sights. Joe Flacco hasn't lit the fires at quarterback, but with Ray Rice pitching in with 12 rushing touchdowns (and a touchdown pass of his own) their offence has been pretty efficient. I don't see the Texans being able to break down the Ravens defence, and I predict that Baltimore will be playing in Foxborough next week.
Prediction: Houston 13 Baltimore 20
NFC Divisional Round
New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)
It's been a contrasting season for these teams, as the Packers had the playoffs wrapped up early as they went 13-0, while the Giants only secured their place by winning in week 17 against Dallas. The two sides did meet in the regular season on December 4th at Lambeau, when the Giants took the Packers all the way before finally being defeated 38-35 in an absolute thriller of a game.
And that's where the interesting part comes in. While the Packers won all but one of their games this season, they gave up over 22 points a game, and their defence was worst in the league for passing yards and total yards allowed. Only the performance of Aaron Rodgers (and Matt Flynn in week 17) lifted them to that 15-1 record. The Giants will take heart that they put up 35 points just six weeks ago, and their near shut out of Atlanta last week (they only gave up a single safety) will give them confidence going forward.
While it would be easy to say that the Packers will breeze this game, I think there's more to it than that. Firstly, Aaron Rodgers and many Packers starters now haven't played for 3 weeks having been rested for week 17, while Eli Manning and the Giants have momentum on their side. Secondly, the Packers have lost three of their last five home playoff games. And thirdly, the Giants play outdoors in a cold weather city, so much of the weather advantage that Green Bay tends to hold is nullified. I still think the Packers will win and go on to host the 49ers for the Conference Championship next week, but I have a feeling it will be a lot closer than most people will expect.
Prediction: New York Giants 31 Green Bay 35
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