The NHL Lockout is almost over. The NHL Board of Governors have ratified the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and after a long, hockeyless winter, the CBA is now with the players association, who will vote today and tomorrow on whether to ratify the deal. If the players vote in favour - as they are expected to - training camps could open on Sunday, with a 48 game regular season facing off on January 19th. And while a 48 game schedule seems a little greedy - 40 or 42 would have made more sense in my eyes - it's great to have hockey back.
There will be no Winter Classic this year, as New Year's Day has come and gone, and the All-Star Festivities have also been scrapped (although I'm not sure that many will care about that.) No-one will be opening the season in Europe, it's straight down to business. As things stand, with the current 48 game plan, each team will play 24 games at home and 24 on the road, all within their own conference. Teams will play two divisional opponents five times, and the other two four times, and will play the other ten teams in their conference three times each to reach the 48 games. This will of course be the harshest on the Winnipeg Jets, still placed in the Southeast Division, as realignment hasn't been worked out for the second successive season. Cue many a long road trip for the Jets again this year.
The Los Angeles Kings go into the 2013 season as reigning Stanley Cup Champions, having won their first title back in June in six games against the New Jersey Devils. The Kings were a surprising champion, having finished in 8th place in the Western Conference regular season standings. They disposed of the Presidents' Trophy winning (and 2011 Stanley Cup Finalist) Vancouver Canucks by 4 games to 1 in the first round of the playoffs, before whitewashing the number 2 seeded St Louis Blues 4-0 in the Conference semi-finals. Their 4-1 win over the third seed Phoenix Coyotes in the Western Conference finals saw them reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the second time.
In the East, the New Jersey Devils were seeded six after the regular season and went through the Florida Panthers and Philadelphia Flyers before meeting their divisional rival New York Rangers in the conference finals. The number one seeded Rangers were beaten by 4 games to 2 by a surging Devils, who came up short when they met a Kings team in inspired form.
But what of this year? The Stanley Cup is notoriously difficult to win back to back. In fact, that last team to repeat were the 1997-98 Detroit Red Wings, and we can all agree that they were one of the finest teams ever to grace the ice. The Kings were no more than an average team for much of the 2011-12 season, but found their form in the last month of the regular season and the playoffs. And that's the thing with an 82 game schedule, the teams who end the season well tend to do well in the playoffs, whereas teams who race out to a great start and tie up playoff spots early have a tendency to fade away. It happened last year with the Canucks - and to a lesser extent the Rangers - and we've seen it happen so many times before in the NHL and the NBA.
But a 48 game season could be different. Of course a team ending the season well is going to carry momentum into the playoffs - how many times have we seen an NFL team rally late in the year and go to the Super Bowl? And that's on a 16 game schedule - but with 48 games instead of 82 there's less time to get complacent, less time to run up a massive head start and slow down. In a shortened season it’s less likely that a team will go on a late season streak like last years' Kings. The Kings will of course be a playoff threat, they're not suddenly going to become a bad team, but I don't see them back in the finals.
Then who are the contenders? The New York Rangers will look to build on their great 2011-12 which took them to the Eastern Conference Finals. They have the best goaltender in hockey in Henrik Lundqvist, who saves points on a frequent basis, and the highly impressive Ryan Callahan and Marian Gaborik on their roster. With Sidney Crosby finally fully fit after a nightmare two years, the Pittsburgh Penguins can once again look to be challengers for the Cup. The Penguins' blend of youth and experience should see them as definite contenders come June. And also from the East, the Boston Bruins can never be counted out. The Garden is one of the toughest road games in the league, and even at 35, Zdeno Chara is still a fearsome opponent. And the reduced schedule could see the Toronto Maple Leafs challenge. The Leafs tend to start well before fading away, and the shortened season could mean that this doesn't happen this time around.
Out West (well, in the Western Conference anyway), as well as the champion Kings, 3 names stand out. The Vancouver Canucks were the best team in the league through the regular season the last two years, and made the Stanley Cup Finals in 2011. The Sedin twins are still two of the best in the league, and the spread of talent that the Canucks possess means that they will almost certainly be challengers. The other two are West teams only in the sense of the NHL - both cities' NBA teams are Eastern Conference for example - and are the Chicago Blackhawks and the Detroit Red Wings. The Blackhawks won the championship as recently as 2010, and although the roster has changed since then, a solid core remains. And the Red Wings won't want to give up their 21 year playoff streak. It's been five years since the last title came to the Joe Louis Arena, and the Detroit team looks as loaded with talent as it has since then.
It's great to have the NHL back. The Kings will open the season at home to the Blackhawks with a midday (PT) face-off at the Staples Center on Saturday January 19th.
Predictions:
Presidents' Trophy: Vancouver
Eastern Conference Champions: Pittsburgh
Western Conference Champions: Chicago
Stanley Cup Champions: Pittsburgh
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